Crop Update – Türkiye

Raisins / Sultanas and Figs have been impacted by poor weather conditions so far this season, reducing overall quantities available.

In addition, it is imperative to take note of prevailing economic conditions in Türkiye that further impact prices of all crops, including apricots.

The stability of exchange rates, combined with rising domestic costs, and the significant differences between official and unofficial inflation rates, remain a critical point of discussion in Turkey’s economic landscape.

• Unfortunately, over the past 10 days, fruit has been badly impacted by heavy rain and hail in the growing regions.​
• The total expected crop for ‘24/’25 is 250,000 tonnes, with the regions affected by rain producing 76% of this volume (190,000 tonnes). ​
• Harvest began around 2 weeks ahead of schedule, so that, when the rain fell, 30% of the crop was harvested and dried, 40% was harvested and on drying beds and the remaining 30% were still on the vines.
• As such, 75,000 tonnes of fruit has been impacted and it is doubtful that any of the crop is salvageable as rains continue.
• The quality of the fruit was, before the rain, excellent with solid brix content making the fruit heavier than usual i.e. they may look smaller, but they weigh more, which might increase the price for smaller sized fruit. ​
• No carry over is expected from the previous year, so overall, the yield will be even smaller than last year. ​
• The demand is high, traders who have money are investing in the crop now, while farmers are holding out hoping for prices to increase. As at 4^th September, market prices increased to 110TL (dark coloured) and 120TL (light coloured).
• Unless the TL devalues, which is unlikely at this point, this trend will continue.
• As such, our position is to buy as soon as possible before supply diminishes and prices rise.

• The crop size of 107,000 tonnes was officially announced last week. In reality, we expect between 135-140,000 tonnes plus 20,000 tonnes of carryover from last year.
• The total available quantity to sell, therefore, will be around 160,000 tonnes.
• Generally, the crop is good quality with all sizes available.
• Traditionally Türkiye exports 90-100,000 tonnes but it is expected this will reduce to only 80,000.
•  As such, there is enough to cover 2 crop years.
• Due to the strong demand from farmers for the TMO to take a market position by buying raw materials at higher levels, TMO has agreed to purchase directly from farmers, but the price has not yet been announced. It is likely to be 10% above market rates.
• At the same time traders and investors are investing in stock.
• All of this leads us to believe there may be an increase in price for the new crop.
• The only way for the price to remain the same is if TMO doesn’t take a market position and the TL remains high, which is the converse to the situation with raisins / sultanas.
• As such, while not as urgently as sultanas / raisins, our position is to buy as early as possible.

• This year the fig crop was harvested (c. 85,000 tonnes) almost 3 weeks earlier than usual due to excessive heat which has caused a number of quality issues:
  • High-quality and larger sized figs have been impacted the most, with drier internals and weight loss. As such, there will be a lower yield of these figs. Small and medium sized figs have not been as badly impacted, although there is limited availability.
  • Although the external appearance of the figs shows an ideal colour, internal spoilage has occurred.  The disease known as “puff,” characterized by a black interior, has increased in this year’s harvest compared to previous years.
  • Carry-over of lower-quality figs from last season will lower overall quality of available stock.
• It is likely the prices for figs will remain high due to decreased availability and ongoing inflationary pressures, even though overall quality will be poorer than expected.

• Like raisins / sultanas, our position is to buy as soon as possible before supply diminishes and prices rise.